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WP1 Release Assessment

Work package led by APHA


WP1 is developing a framework to identify the high risk entry points of important exotic livestock diseases into the European Union for animal pathogens. Within this framework, three case study pathogens are being parameterised - classical swine fever, bluetongue and rabies. 

User friendly interface

An interface for the risk assessment model developed in WP1 and WP2 is being developed to enable the user to access and change the input data or investigate specific scenarios. Analytical tools will also be accessed from the interface, together with automated data input updates, where available.

Hazard Identification and approaches to prioritisation 

A hazard identification exercise has been completed where relevant exotic animal health pathogens and their key modes of introduction for each pathogen was identified together with a weighting for the importance of each mode given multiple routes for a single pathogen. 

Report available in pdf: click image to access

Publication: submitted to Prev Vet Med journal

Ranking App:

What data are publicly available for use in import assessments?

There are now a wide variety of relevant datasets, including those that have been piloted in other spatial risk assessments to assess (i) disease presence in each country globally, and (ii) the scale of transmission in products such as legal imports of meat, live animals, and vectors. A review has been completed on the quality of data available and on the possibility of automatically updating in real-time. 

Report available in pdf: click image to access

Spatial risk assessment model

A spatial risk assessment framework is being developed in a modular fashion in freeware (R) to
quantify and show visually specific geographical areas where there is a higher probability for entry into the EU by pathogen by member state.

SPARE oral presentation at SAFEPORK 2017 –21-24 August 2017, Foz do Iguaçu , Brazil

​An oral presentation on the Classical Swine Fever release assessment was accepted at the 12th International Symposium on the Epidemiology and Control of Biological, Chemical and Physical Hazards in Pigs and Pork, 21-24 August 2017, Foz do Iguaçu , Brazil

Abstract: The threat of incursion of exotic animal pathogens into the European Union (EU) Member States (MS) via transmission routes such as human travel and trade of live animals and their products is dynamic and needs to be continually re-assessed. Here, we present a quantitative spatial entry assessment model for assessing the risk of incursion of exotic pig diseases such as Classical Swine Fever (CSF) into the EU.

An extended abstract is in the proceedings book which is available online here:

SVEPM Proceedings paper and oral presentation  SVEPM Conference 2017 Inverness, Scotland

Mighty Models from little data grow: Estimating animal disease


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